The Political Chase

Will the Shoe Drop on Karl Rove Soon?

Raw Story reports that Patrick Fitzgerald will most likely indict Karl Rove along similar lines as he indicted Scooter Libby in the Plame Wilson investigation. IMHO, the sources Raw Story cites do not sound as if they are at the appropriate level to bet money on an indictment coming forth in the next 24 hours.

In its report, Raw Story cites lawyers familiar with the case occasionally, but most of the source information comes from the very vanilla, “sources familiar with the case.” I may be wrong, but there are just too many sources cited that seem too low to put real confidence in something substantial happening soon.

That’s not to say Raw Story’s incorrect, or has unreliable sources. This sounds more like leading down the path rather than being at the end of the path. There are some key points, that when put together, provide a  good case based on circumstantial evidence, but I don’t believe Fitzgerald will even remotely consider a circumstantial evidence based case. Like it or not, Karl Rove is a power house – when he speaks the President listens. You only knock one of those guys down when you are 110% sure you have the goods and there is no way for the defendant to get out – a jury of 12 Bob Novaks would convict.

Taking into account Raw Story’s piece and history, it doesn’t look good for Rove. I think this is a matter of when, not if.

1. Back in 2003, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales ordered everyone in the White House, including the big guy, to turn over any and all communication regarding Valerie Wilson, but the order was not executed until 12 hours after Gonzales issued the order. I’m going on memory on this one, I don’t have a source to cite but, I seem to remember that Andrew Card was responsible for executing the order. Card waited 12 hours from the time he received the order until he, Card, dispatched it to the White House staff. That’s a lot of rip, tear and destroy time. It only took an 18 minute 30 second gap to throw Nixon out of the White House and virtually all of his lieutenants in jail.
2. Assume nothing was destroyed. There’s the matter of the missing email between Rove and Steven Hadley. Anybody reading this blog knows about email. Either you have it or you don’t. When you don’t, then it’s been purposefully deleted or it went away with a ton of other email at the same time. Rove was supposed to supply the DOJ with all communications, but somehow this one email is missing for a year. How does just one email pop up after a year? You hand the DOJ your current email file and your archive files – simple. One email does not just magically appear when you or your lawyer decide to do an exhaustive search because of a statement made when two people are slamming down a few.
3. According to Raw Story, Rove told his assistant to not log a specific phone call from Matt Cooper. I missed that along the way if it is common knowledge. I knew the call was not logged (excuses given were the White House switchboard), but this is the first time I’ve heard that Rove ordered her to not log the call. That smells worse than dead fish after a week.

There’s been too much proven already for Karl Rove to walk away with a halo over his head. He’s as dirty as the soil in a landfill. He might slip away from the slammer, but he’ll still go home with dirty clothes. Fitzgerald just has to have prove the man was playing in the sand box and that’s why he’s dirty.

Raw Story may have a hot one, and Rove goes bye-bye real soon, but my instincts tell me it’s not going to be tomorrow. I don’t think he’s had sufficient time with the new grand jury. If Fitz happens to drop the shoe tomorrow or the next day, then Rove is absolutely toast – don’t bother with a jury. Getting the grand jury to indict after having met only three hours at this point, would mean Fitz has overwhelming hard evidence.

What about Cheney? Any hunches there?