Latest Poll - Al Gore In Top 3, Second Tier Is All But Gone
To not be a candidate, Al Gore does remarkably well in the latest Washington Post/ABC News Poll. However, when not given Al Gore as an option, Hillary Clinton gains the most and has a commanding lead, by 15 points, over her next closest opponent, Barack Obama
When compared to the top three candidates - Obama, Edwards, and Clinton - the second tier candidates might as well not be in the race. If you combine all of the second tier candidates points, they are still less than the third place candidate John Edwards.
The obvious question is, did last night’s debate effect these results. There will probably be some change, but not enough to turn the poll on its head.
I still believe no one should bet on the national polls. I believe the winner of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary will be the decision makers. If one candidate wins both, that person is all but guaranteed to be the nominee. If there are different winners in those two primaries, all the other candidates can forget the presidential nomination and should stay in only if they want a shot at the vice-presidential nomination.
On a personal level, while these numbers give Hillary a commanding lead, I don’t think she can win the general election. If you thought John Kerry was run over by swift-boating in 2004, that was nothing when compared to what the Republicans will do if Hillary wins. It will be an unprecedented political war. Democrats need to consider who can win the general election when deciding their primary votes, and the candidates cannot think about the general election until after the primaries are complete. Any candidate they focuses on the next race will not make it to that race.
POLL RESULTS
(ASKED OF THOSE LEANING TOWARDS DEMOCRATS) If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Al Gore, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel), for whom would you vote?
| 6/1/07 | 4/15/07 | 2/25/07 | 1/19/07 | 12/11/06 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 35 | 37 | 36 | 41 | 39 |
| Barack Obama | 23 | 20 | 24 | 17 | 17 |
| Al Gore | 17 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| John Edwards | 8 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Joe Biden | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Bill Richardson | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Dodd | 1 | * | * | * | * |
| Dennis Kucinich | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | NA |
| Mike Gravel | * | * | 0 | * | NA |
| Other (vol.) | * | * | * | 1 | * |
| Evan Bayh | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1 |
| Wesley Clark | NA | 1 | * | 1 | 1 |
| John Kerry | NA | NA | NA | 8 | 7 |
| Tom Vilsack | NA | NA | * | * | 1 |
| None of these (vol.) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Would not vote (vol.) | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 |
| No opinion | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
(ASKED OF GORE SUPPORTERS) If Gore does not run, for whom would you vote?
| 6/1/07 | 4/15/07 | 2/25/07 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 42 | 41 | 43 |
| Barack Obama | 27 | 25 | 27 |
| John Edwards | 11 | 17 | 14 |
| Joe Biden | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Bill Richardson | 2 | 1 | * |
| Chris Dodd | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Dennis Kucinich | 1 | * | * |
| Mike Gravel | * | * | * |
| Other (vol.) | * | * | * |
| Wesley Clark | NA | 1 | * |
| Tom Vilsack | NA | NA | * |
| None of these (vol.) | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Would not vote (vol.) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| No opinion | 5 | 3 | 4 |
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