The Political Chase

Putin and Iran - Cold War Deja Vu

George Bush’s warmongering rhetoric, which is derived from Dick Cheney’s insatiable desire to attack Iran is counter-productive at best. Pounding their chests at Ahmadinejad is one thing, but when Putin serves as his proxy, the conflict enters another dimension — a very serious one.

Putin Stresses Opposition to Military Action Against Iran

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday repeated his opposition to any military action against Iran because of that country’s nuclear program.

No Caspian Sea country should let its territory be used by other countries “for aggressive or military operations against another Caspian state,” said Putin, who is attending a meeting in Tehran of the leaders of the five countries that border the inland sea.

The leaders of the countries, which also include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, jointly made a similar statement, signaling the opposition of Iran’s neighbors to any military action by the United States or its allies.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said: “The Caspian Sea is an inland sea, and it only belongs to the Caspian states. Therefore only they are entitled to have their ships and military forces here.”

The five countries also declared that any country that is a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty can “carry out research and can use nuclear energy for peaceful means without discrimination.” Iran says that all its nuclear work is peaceful.

Nations bordering Caspian Sea

Matt Yglesias makes several notable points here:

Vladimir Putin’s warnings against military action against Iran deserve to be taken very seriously. Since we’re not contemplating actually conquering Iran and trying to occupy its territory, people need to understand that the post-strike diplomatic environment is going to be much more important to the future of the Iranian nuclear program than is any damage that bombing Iran with our on-the-table options might or might not do. If Russia decides to just send some scientists with schematics and materiel over to Iran and show them how to build a nuclear bomb, then — bam — nuclear bomb.

Conversely, at the moment not only is Iran under some diplomatic pressure to stop short of weaponizing, many countries around the world are taking direct measures to prevent the Iranians from just easily going and buying the stuff they need. Insofar as an unprovoked American military attack convinces other countries that the real dangerous lunatics live in DC rather than Teheran, countries around the world could cut back on their vigilance and make it much easier for an Iranian nuclear program to succeed.

Cheney will never willingly abandon his imperialistic ideology as outlined in his 1992 manifesto (pdf). His obsession has to be bridled by a more powerful or authoritative figure. Bush 41 stopped him in 1992, but George W. has obviously exercised little control over Cheney, and the last thing we need is for Vladimir Putin to assume the controlling role.