The Political Chase

Obama Leads Iowa in New Poll

Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses according to a new Des Moines Register poll. The poll, released today, confirms the results reflected in a November 17 Washington Post/ABC News poll

Des Moines Register Poll

Candidate	November	October	Change
Barack Obama	28	22	+7
Hillary Clinton	25	29	-4
John Edwards	23	23	-
Bill Richardson	9	8	+1

 

Washington Post/ABC News Poll

Candidate	November	July	Change
Barack Obama	30	27	+3
Hillary Clinton	26	26	-
John Edwards	22	26	-4
Bill Richardson	11	11	-

 

While the new poll puts Obama in the lead, “just over half of likely caucusgoers who favor a candidate saying they could change their minds,” the Des Moine Register reports. But there are other important facts to consider.

The lead change appears after weeks of increasing criticism of Clinton by Obama and Edwards about her position on U.S. policy toward Iran and questions of her candor.

Furthermore, the poll would not reflect how voters may have been influenced by the candidates’ activities this weekend. As I noted previously, Hillary Clinton was booed for vague answers she gave in Iowa yesterday.

Hillary’s ambiguity

As evidenced in Iowa today, Hillary Clinton either believes the short-term consequences of ambiguous answers are worth the risk in the long-term or she is in a serious nose-dive.

An audience of progressive activists booed Senator Hillary Clinton today during an exchange on immigration reform. At the Heartland Community Values Forum in Des Moines, Iowa, Clinton was asked whether “giv(ing) undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship” would be a priority in her first hundred days as President. Clinton told the audience "comprehensive immigration reform will be a high priority for me.” That response elicited boos - and no applause.

Asked again whether she’d take up the issue in her first hundred days she said,“Well you’ve got to get the Congress to pass the legislation in order for the President to do as much as possible, which I will do.” That was met by still more loud boos.

Bill Clinton successfully managed giving vague answers, which may be what motivates her to do so, but there are a few factors that make her Ambiguous Strategy the wrong strategy.

1. Hillary is not Bill.
2. Voters want answers. Ambiguity induces painful thoughts and memories of seven years of George Bush and Dick Cheney’s deceit and vague statements on serious issues.
3. It’s not 1992. The public’s demands and needs are entirely different.

Clinton was hammered for meandering in the October MSNBC debate and it has been down hill since. If she continues her Ambiguous Strategy she deserves continued declines.