Huckabee’s Surge
I was out of town most of the day yesterday and did not get a chance to post the Republican Party side of the Iowa poll conducted by the Des Moines Register.
Gov. Mike Huckabee’s (AR) ranking increased 17 points, allowing him to pass former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to take the lead among likely GOP caucus participants.
| Candidate | November | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Huckabee | 29 | 12 | +17 |
| Mitt Romney | 24 | 29 | -5 |
| Rudy Giuliani | 13 | 11 | +2 |
| Fred Thompson | 9 | 18 | -9 |
| John McCain | 7 | 7 | - |
| Ron Paul | 7 | 4 | +3 |
| Not Sure/Uncommitted | 4 | 9 | -5 |
Huckabee’s surge is significant, especially considering the amount of time and money Mitt Romney has spent in Iowa. Romney has campaigned extensively in Iowa — TV ads and personal appearances, whereas Huckabee’s campaigning has been limited, largely due to availability of funding. I don’t have the exact figures, but if I recall correctly, Romney’s expenditures in Iowa exceeded Huckabee about 10 to 1, or approximately $1.5 million for Romney and approximately $150,000 for Huckabee.
Nationally, according to the latest FEC filings (9/30), Romney’s campaign had received $62.8 million, versus $2.3 million for Huckabee.
Notable also is Fred Thompson’s performance in the poll. Thompson, the touted savior of the Republican Party before actually entering the race, dropped nine points and is statistically tied with John McCain and Ron Paul.
Furthermore, the GOP race in Iowa is fluid, to say the least. “Roughly six in 10 likely Republican caucus participants say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate,” the Des Moines Register reports.
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