The Political Chase

Poll: Hillary and Edwards Up, Obama Down

A new ARG Iowa poll has turned prior polls on their heads, giving Hilary Clinton a 14-point lead. In only three days Clinton jumped five points, John Edwards increased by two points moving him to second place, and Barack Obama dropped a surprising 6 points putting him in third place.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee maintained his first place position, but dropped five points. Although still low in the polls, Ron Paul had the greatest increase among Republicans with six points.

It’s hard to put much confidence in the Iowa polls because the state determines their nominee via caucuses and historically things change overnight. I have included a chart of polls spanning the past few weeks (Democrats only), which may help in formulating your own conclusions. The historical chart follows the two current AVG charts.

Democratic Breakdown

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 21%, which is unchanged from a week ago (Clinton 36%, Obama 23% among women).

Obama has lost ground among men to John Edwards and Clinton.

Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards is at 27%, Obama is at 16%, and Joe Biden is at 11%. A week ago, Obama was at 27% among men, followed by 21% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards.

One item worth mentioning - the new polls include this past weekend when the candidates were doing a full-court press. Assuming they are reasonably accurate, my post about John Edwards’ Fight Club remarks was far from accurate. Or at least received differently than I would have. I perceived Edwards was strongly instructing their thinking, much like he may have done with juries and found it to be successful. The next poll will likely be more telling. Caucus-goers will have had more time to reflect on his remarks, as well as the other candidates. From a personal perspective, I would not have been receptive to what appeared to be a dumbing-down approach.

If you look at the new poll, Hillary’s increase came straight from Obama supporters.

Republican Breakdown

Mike Huckabee has lost support among men. While Huckabee had 31% of men a week ago, Huckabee is now at 20% among men, with Rudy Giuliani at 20%, John McCain at 17%, and Mitt Romney at 17%.

Huckabee and Romney remained tied among women at 26% each, with McCain at 17%, Ron Paul at 11%, and Giuliani at 6%.