The Political Chase

Hillary’s ‘Mo

It’s starting to look like Barack Obama is overtaking Hillary Clinton to the point where a brokered convention or super delegates will not be a consideration, much less her capturing the nomination before the convention. There are just too many signs that cumulatively indicate anything but a potential winner.

Her previously favorable demographics have slipped.

According to exit polling, Obama scored a resounding, across-the-board triumph in Virginia even among demographic groups that have favored Clinton before. Obama won women by double digits. Among Latino voters, who make up five percent of the electorate in the commonwealth, Obama held a 10-point margin.

She lost all primaries and caucuses this past weekend. Furthermore, those loses were all double-digit loses, with some approaching or surpassing 30 points.

At the most atypical time for a presidential campaign, her campaign manager and deputy campaign manager “resigned.”

Her campaign almost went broke and she did not even know it. Although Clinton received substantial donations after the campaign’s financial status was made public, Obama’s fundraising is outpacing her by at least 2 to 1.

Obama fund-raisers say he is taking in roughly $1 million a day, while Clinton fund-raisers say she is taking in about half of that, mostly online.

Hillary pre-maturely abandoned campaigning in the states where primaries were held today and this past weekend to implement a “Rudy-Hold-’Em” strategy in Texas. She sent Bill Clinton to Ohio to develop her last possible firewall in Ohio.

She is now behind in national polling after enjoying 20+ point leads for more than a year, Furthermore, she loses or ties, at best, in head-to-head polls with John McCain, whereas Obama beats McCain.

When all those factors are combined it doesn’t look promising for Clinton, but in my opinion, the most telling is the substantial change in the voter’s demographics. If that remains constant or worsens, it rapidly eliminates Obama’s campaign as a demographic anomaly. It’s no longer about ethnicity, gender, or age group.

Simply stated, Hillary seems to have lost her ‘Mo.

Time will tell. Maybe Hillary’s Rudy-Hold-’Em strategy will prove Rudy and me wrong.