The Political Chase

Obama drops in AP poll

A new AP/Ipsos national poll was released yesterday, but due to other activities I was unable to post it yesterday.

The poll, taken April 7 - 9, has Barack Obama dropping six points in a head-to-head matchup with John McCain when compared to the last AP poll taken in February. McCain benefited from a bump after winning the GOP nomination, and the seemingly endless Clinton-Obama slugfest. 

McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Obama lost ground in most demographic areas in the head-to-head matchup with John McCain. However, Clinton dropped seven points in her strongest demographic – women voters. Nevertheless, she gained 10 points among male voters (White male voters were moving to Obama in Feb., iirc.)

The Clinton-Obama slugfest “is creating divisions among the electorate.” No surprise there. Approximately 25% of Obama supporters say they will vote for McCain if Clinton is nominee. Approximately 33% of Clinton supporters say the will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee.

Although not quantitatively specified in the poll, it is reasonable to conclude a portion (substantial?) of McSame’s lead in independent voters is attributable to the Clinton-Obama slugfest. The negative atmosphere of the Democratic campaign affected Obama and Clinton individually, and to an unspecified amount, it affected the Democratic presidential race in general. Since Clinton did not increase her lead in the Democratic primary race and her strategy is based almost entirely on negative attacks, it strongly suggests Clinton should revisit her strategy.

Of all details and variances in the poll, the results among core Democratic voters are the most interesting, I believe. Among “self-described moderate Democrats” Obama took the lead with 51 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent. In February, they were 45 percent Clinton, 40 percent Obama. Several things come to mind here. Hillary has consistently done better with the Democratic base – less educated, lower income, and blue-collar workers – and Obama has done better with wine-sippers, college-educated, and those with higher income. So does this mean the base is changing? Have Democratic voters – lower-income ranges, Since Obama dropped in other areas of the poll, one might expect to see a similar effect among core Democratic voters. Does this indicate the Democratic base is changing?

Clinton and Obama are now statistically about even among households earning under $50,000. In late February, Clinton led 54 percent to 37 percent, but now it is just 48 percent to 41 percent. This appears to indicate a change in the overall Democratic base, at least for period covered in this poll.

In addition, the AP incorrectly states Obama suffered a “high profile loss in Texas.” Although Sen. Clinton won the popular vote by approximately 140,000, which does not include the caucuses, Sen. Obama won 99 delegates and Sen. Clinton won 94. Hardly a definitive win for Clinton, and an undeniable, important win in delegates for Obama.