The Political Chase

Issues polling vs. election polling

It would be hard to argue that John McCain’s policies differ from George Bush’s. There are a few differences, but they are by no means substantial, or at least I don’t view them as significant. Since Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of Bush’s handling of the two top issues — Iraq and the economy — and McCain is Bush III, how is McCain able to receive relatively favorable ratings in general election polling against the Democrats?

Only 28 percent of Americans approve of Bush’s handling of the economy and only 31 percent approve of his handling of the Iraq war (4/7-9/08). But in head-to-head matchups against Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, McCain’s ratings are 45 and 46 respectively.

These are graphics from Pollster.com:

McCain vs. Obama		McCain vs. Clinton
Click image to enlarge

Obviously there are contradictions and many would like to know the answer, especially Sen. Clinton since she is arguing only she can win against McCain.

Here I go with another Chertoff-gut-reaction, but I believe the answer probably resides in the election polling and is not an indication of inaccuracy on the issues polling. I have a few thoughts on why the polling results appear to be contradictory, but nothing worth noting at the moment. However, it certainly is something I would like to have a better understanding of before the Pennsylvania primary is held on April 22.

Any ideas?