The Political Chase

Clinton projected winner, margin unknown

Although Clinton is the projected winner, it doesn’t look like her margin of victory will be enough to make any noteworty change in the larger picture. Most of the areas around Philadelphia have not reported yet, and Obama was expected to win that area.

Of course, that will not be the spin you will be hearing from Team Clinton or the media. Team Clinton has already declared themselves the winner of everything — past, present, and future.

While Clinton may win the popular vote tonight (by an unknown amount), she may not win what is most important — delegates. At best, allocation of delegates will not be known until tomorrow.

In spite of Terry McAuliffe’s gleeful claims on MSNBC that popular votes will determine the nomination, Democratic rules, not Team Clinton’s, are applicable. Besides, I don’t know if Team Clinton really wants to go down that road. If they do, and are allowed to do so, caucus votes would have to be factored in some way.

Unfortunately, I cannot recall the source or the specific amount, but I distinctly remember a credible source saying an algorithm to convert caucus votes into popular votes had been developed (not party sanctioned yet). In summary, the mathematician had determined that adding caucus votes would give Obama a lead (before tonight) of approximately 1.5 - 2 million votes or more.

I believe Obama will continue focusing on trying to run Clinton out of money, and unless she is very successful with her forthcoming spin, it will be very easy.