The Political Chase

Hillary Cancels All Morning Shows

Tim Russert just reported on MSNBC that Hillary cancelled all of her appearances on morning shows tomorrow. I don’t know whether that was 1 or 100, but it is definitely telling.

What’s up with Gary, Indiana?

Why is Lake County, Indiana so late reporting? MSNBC just reported they will not report any votes until 12:00 AM ET.

Gary is in the Lake County and the demographics lean heavily towards Obama. But there was rhetoric coming from county officials earlier today that Clinton was going to win decisively.

“She’s going to win here by 10 percent,” Merrillville Clerk-Treasurer Eugene Guernsey said. While Obama is expected to take Gary handily, Clinton hopes to take many of these other towns, using the same blue-collar populism that worked for her in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The county has not reported a single vote and the polls closed three hours ago????

Indiana and North Carolina Results

Please note: this post will be bumped up while the returns come in. Newer posts may follow it.

NBC has changed Indiana from “too early to call” to “too close to call.”

Identity politics at CNN

Not only is it heated between the two campaigns, it’s heated at CNN as well.

A fight over identity politics just broke out among the CNN Democratic pundits, Donna Brazile and Paul Begala. Mr. Begala, a Clinton supporter, accused Ms. Brazile of suggesting that Mr. Obama could win without white blue-collar voters and Latinos. And he added that Democrats couldn’t win in November by just including “eggheads.” She shot back that she was tired of the divisions, tired of people calling it “my party,” not “our party.”

“Stop the division,” she said heatedly, “stop trying to split us into groups. And she contended tha Mr. Begala’s insistence that Senator Clinton’s coalition was broader was not accurate. She became more irritated, saying she felt as though these divisions suggested “I can’t stand in Hillary’s camp because I’m black or I can’t stand in Obama’s camp because I’m a woman"

On a side note - Obama is expected to speak in Raleigh soon.

Bankrupt again?

Looks like the Clintons had to float another loan to make it through today’s primaries.

Team Hillary: Beware of Obama in October

Well, the spin has started and it seems to have no boundaries. The Hillary campaign has warned of an "October surprise" with Obama.

Reviewing NC Prediction

Thirty-two percent of the voters in North Carolina were African-Americans and 91 percent of those voters chose Barack Obama. I predicted 40 percent of African-American voters would turnout and that 80 percent of those voters would go for Obama. Looks like I was definitely off on each percentage, but maybe the net will yield a reasonably close overall match.

Gotta try to spin it somehow!

Looks like I’ll have to wait for total vote turnout is to determine how close I was in general.

Update:  As of 9:39 PM with 26 percent of the precincts reporting, the voter turnout in N.C. is 26 percent. (1,514,987 ballots cast, 5,811,778 registered voters)

Obama Wins in NC

NBC News calls it for North Carolina the moment the polls closed.

Early Exit Polling Results - Negativity

Early exit polls from CBS:

Voting for the Opponent - The slugfest in the campaign is definitely taking a toll. Only 36 percent of Clinton voters in Indiana and 34 percent in North Carolina said they would be vote for Obama if Clinton does not win the nomination. Forty-one percent of Obama voters in Indiana and 44 percent in North Carolina would be satisfied if Clinton

Negative Attacks — 63% of Indiana voters and 67% of North Carolina voters thought Clinton attacked her opponent unfairly, while only 43% in Indiana and 40% in North Carolina thought that Obama unfairly attacked Clinton.

Exit Polling - Most Important Issue

Exit Polling (MSNBC)

What the chattering class will say

I think most are of the opinion that Clinton will win Indiana in the mid-to-low single digits; probably somewhere around five points. Obama will probably win North Carolina maybe with a high single-digit margin. Some are predicting double digits for Obama in N.C., but I’m not that confident. If that turns out to be reasonably accurate, nothing will really change tonight, other than the spin. And the media rhetoric is going to determine the prevailing winds, regardless of what either campaign says.

Unless Clinton loses substantially in both states, which is unlikely, one of the first things the elite punditry is going to start chattering is, "Why can’t Obama close the deal?" And Chris Matthews will be the first to utter those words, with Pat Buchanan parroting the same words. Following Pat’s "close the deal" yapping will be how much Jeremiah Wright has hurt Obama and he is in "real trouble."

Joe Scarborough will find any tid-bit possible, if not just make it up, to yap about what a great fighter Hillary Clinton is. And he’ll repeat it continuously for the full three hours of his show tomorrow morning.

In summary, I expect the chattering class, with the exception of maybe Rachel Maddow, to paint Obama as struggling, tired, on a losing-streak, and having no momentum.

Indiana prediction not as easy

I have not been able to find any electoral demographics for Indiana that I consider reliable or usable. The Indiana Election Division does not appear to publish any official breakdown of registered voters; if they do, I have not been able to find it. All the polls have demographic data, but it’s provided in terms of results rather than raw data and some polls were weighted, while others were not. So, unless I can find more reliable and usable data, any predictions I might make would be analyzing poll results.

Since some polls begin to close in about an hour, it is extremely unlikely that I will be able to publish any D-I-Y predictions for the Hoosier State. However Pollster has already done a good job of analyzing the polls. They have multiple variations and a roundup, which can be found here.

Also, Markos has done an analysis of his own based on polling data. You can read it here.

Prediction for North Carolina Primary

(updated below)

I may be wrong, but unless all polls are wrong (polls leading up to N.C. primary and exit polls from prior elections), I don’t see how Barack Obama can lose N.C. Based on my algorithm, Obama would have to suffer a catastrophic reversal of current and historical trends to lose.

Based on a 40 percent registered-voter turnout, Obama would only need 17.13 percent, or 179,888 votes from any demographic (other than African American) to win a one-vote majority. If I recall correctly, I cannot remember Hillary Clinton ever receiving 83+ percent of all non-African-American votes in any election.

This is how I calculated the hypothetical results. The greatest opportunity for error is potentially in voter turnout. However, since I applied 40 percent across all areas in the algorithm, I believe this yields a more conservative, or Obama-positive, trend. Moreover, I believe voter turnout will be greater than 40 percent, but the changes in the results, I think, should only be a relative increase in basic computations and not necessarily effect percentages.

Shoot holes in this and tell me where my logic failed, other than voter turnout.

My source of data for North Carolina is the NC State Board of Elections, and reflects data as of May 3, which was after the deadline for voter registration.

General

• Registered African-American voters:  1,198,672
• Registered White Voters:  4,371,988
• Registered Other Voters:  184,938
• Registered Democratic voters:  2,625,522
• Registered Republican Voters:  1,933,434

Calculations and Assumptions

The numbers are rounded and may vary slightly — 1 or 2 — from what is actually shown.

• Assuming there is a 40 percent turnout of Democratic voters, that would equate to 1,050,209. (2,625,522 x .40) = 1,050,209
  
• Assuming 90 percent of all African-American voters are Democrats, that would yield 1,078,085 eligible voters (1,198,672 x .90) = 1,078,085.
• Applying the 40 percent turnout to African-American voters would yield 431,522 African-American voters. (1,078,085 x .40).
• Assuming 80 percent of the 431,522 African-American voters will vote for Obama, that would give him 345,218 votes or 33 percent of the votes cast.
  
  (registered African-American voters x .80) = Democratic African-American voters
  (431,522 x .80) = 345,218

  (Dem. African-American voters / anticipated Democratic voter turn-out) x 100 = African-American percentage of total votes
  (345,218 / 1,050,209) x 100 = 32.8%

• 525,105 votes is the magic number for a one-vote majority.

  (Total votes projected / 2) + 1
  (1,059,209 / 2) + 1) = 525,105
  

• For Obama to reach the one-vote majority, in addition to the African American votes received (345,218), he would need an additional 179,888 votes or 17.13 percent of the total votes. (Evaluated at 40 percent turnout).

  (50% + 1 vote of total vote - African-American votes received) = Additional votes required from any demographic other the African-American

  ((1,050,208/2) +1) - 345,218 = Additional votes required
  (525,105 - 345,218) = 179,888
  (179,888 / total votes) x 100 = Percent votes needed
  179,188 / 1,050,208) x 100 = 17.13% (rounded)

Update 4:27 PM ET:  I should note that independent voters or cross-overs from the GOP are not reflected in this prediction. In North Carolina unaffiliated voters can vote in either primary (GOP or Dem, but not both), but they must be registered and have no party specified. If voters are registered as a Democrat or a Republican they must vote in the primary reflected on their registration. That prevents all those Limbaugh-cross-overs that had already declared their party status, with I would think the majority of would proudly do at registration time.

Reid Praises Lieberman’s Pro-Democratic Record

Harry Reid was on The Daily Show last night (promoting his new book The Good Fight) and his interview with Jon Stewart certainly did nothing to improve my perceptions of Reid over the past few years. In addition to solidifying my opinion that Reid appears to be an empty suit, he jumped in the tank — head first — with Joe Lieberman. Reid had the temerity to say Lieberman "supports [Democrats] on virtually everything except the war."

Let’s take a look at how Joe Lieberman has helped tilt the delicate balance in the Senate towards Democratic proposed positions and policies.

S.J. Res 14 - Cloture vote on no confidence resolution resolution for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.

Ayes: Democrats - 45, Republicans -7, Independents -1
Nays: Republicans - 37, Independent (Lieberman) - 1

S. 3907 (Dodd Amendment) - Remove amnesty for telecoms from the FISA Bill (S. 2248)

Ayes: Democrats - 30
Nayes: Democrats -18, Republicans - 48, Independent (Lieberman) - 1

S. Amdt. 3910 - To provide FISA as the exclusive means to conduct electronic surveillance

Ayes: Democrats - 47, Republicans - 9, Independents - 1
Nayes: Democrats - 1, Republicans -39, Independents (Lieberman) - 1

Obviously, Lieberman has not been supportive of issues that core Democrats have raised as their top concerns.

When speaking on the Senate floor, Reid comes across as an empty suit. But last night, either Reid all but refused to participate in the interview, or the empty suit didn’t even bother to show up. Whatever the case, Reid did little to motivate younger viewers (majority of Stewart’s audience) to the Democratic Party. Instead, his lifeless performance certainly helped voters understand why Democrats have been unable to push back against against Republicans since 2006.

Watch the video.