Prediction for North Carolina Primary
I may be wrong, but unless all polls are wrong (polls leading up to N.C. primary and exit polls from prior elections), I don’t see how Barack Obama can lose N.C. Based on my algorithm, Obama would have to suffer a catastrophic reversal of current and historical trends to lose.
Based on a 40 percent registered-voter turnout, Obama would only need 17.13 percent, or 179,888 votes from any demographic (other than African American) to win a one-vote majority. If I recall correctly, I cannot remember Hillary Clinton ever receiving 83+ percent of all non-African-American votes in any election.
This is how I calculated the hypothetical results. The greatest opportunity for error is potentially in voter turnout. However, since I applied 40 percent across all areas in the algorithm, I believe this yields a more conservative, or Obama-positive, trend. Moreover, I believe voter turnout will be greater than 40 percent, but the changes in the results, I think, should only be a relative increase in basic computations and not necessarily effect percentages.
Shoot holes in this and tell me where my logic failed, other than voter turnout.
My source of data for North Carolina is the NC State Board of Elections, and reflects data as of May 3, which was after the deadline for voter registration.
General
- Registered African-American voters: 1,198,672
- Registered White Voters: 4,371,988
- Registered Other Voters: 184,938
- Registered Democratic voters: 2,625,522
- Registered Republican Voters: 1,933,434
Calculations and Assumptions
The numbers are rounded and may vary slightly — 1 or 2 — from what is actually shown.
- Assuming there is a 40 percent turnout of Democratic voters, that would equate to 1,050,209. (2,625,522 x .40) = 1,050,209
- Assuming 90 percent of all African-American voters are Democrats, that would yield 1,078,085 eligible voters (1,198,672 x .90) = 1,078,085.
- Applying the 40 percent turnout to African-American voters would yield 431,522 African-American voters. (1,078,085 x .40).
- Assuming 80 percent of the 431,522 African-American voters will vote for Obama, that would give him 345,218 votes or 33 percent of the votes cast.
(registered African-American voters x .80) = Democratic African-American voters
(431,522 x .80) = 345,218(Dem. African-American voters / anticipated Democratic voter turn-out) x 100 = African-American percentage of total votes
(345,218 / 1,050,209) x 100 = 32.8% - 525,105 votes is the magic number for a one-vote majority.
(Total votes projected / 2) + 1
(1,059,209 / 2) + 1) = 525,105 - For Obama to reach the one-vote majority, in addition to the African American votes received (345,218), he would need an additional 179,888 votes or 17.13 percent of the total votes. (Evaluated at 40 percent turnout).
(50% + 1 vote of total vote - African-American votes received) = Additional votes required from any demographic other the African-American
((1,050,208/2) +1) - 345,218 = Additional votes required
(525,105 - 345,218) = 179,888
(179,888 / total votes) x 100 = Percent votes needed
179,188 / 1,050,208) x 100 = 17.13% (rounded)
Update 4:27 PM ET: I should note that independent voters or cross-overs from the GOP are not reflected in this prediction. In North Carolina unaffiliated voters can vote in either primary (GOP or Dem, but not both), but they must be registered and have no party specified. If voters are registered as a Democrat or a Republican they must vote in the primary reflected on their registration. That prevents all those Limbaugh-cross-overs that had already declared their party status, with I would think the majority of would proudly do at registration time.
Hi David,
Your mathematical analysis has a simple elegance and logic. Your numbers turn out to be quite accurate as well, however, what were the actual results. Overall, how many African Americans voted in the North Carolina primary?
thank you,
Peter
Thanks Peter.
To my knowledge, NC has not published a demographic report on voter turnout yet, but this is what I have.
According to the NC Board of Elections, total voter turnout was 36.13% (Registered voters: 5,811,778; Ballots cast: 2,099,961). Obama trounced Clinton by 55.99% to 41.74%.
MSNBC exit polls indicate 62 percent of voters in N.C. were white and 34 percent were African-American. That yields 1,301,976 and 713,987 votes, respectively.
(Update: This is wrong. I did not factor Republican primary votes into the equation. The percentages are still accurate, but not the number of votes. I’ll update later, time permitting. Sorry ’bout that.)
Breaking down the 34 percent of African-American votes, 91 percent, or 649,728, voted for Obama. Seven percent, or 49,979, voted for Clinton. One percent of African-American voters had no preference (voted for local races and/or issues only).
Breaking down the 62 percent of white votes, 61 percent voted for Clinton, 37 percent voted for Obama, and two percent had no preference. To determine the actual number voted you can just apply the percentages, beginning with the total number of votes (1,301,976 ).
MSNBC’s exit polls appear to be reasonably accurate because the Raleigh News and Observer (via CNN) also reported 91% of African-Americans voter for Obama.
Hope that helps.
- - David