The Political Chase

What happens now

(Update I and Update II below)

The results from yesterday’s elections are surprising, at least to me they are. I expected Obama to win decisively in North Carolina, but I did not expect him to trounce Clinton in N. C. And, I must admit, I was really concerned about Indiana – PA type of concern. I believed many in Hillary’s core demographic group (low income, under-educated less educated) would buy into her pandering and “testicular-fortitude” brand of rhetoric. Many did, but not enough to give her campaign legitimacy going forward.

I also believe Obama’s relentless efforts to push back on the gas tax pandering probably helped considerably.

But despite legitimacy (or absence of), I’m not ready to buy into the requiem the media was selling last night. Tomorrow maybe, but not today.

It was obvious when Hillary gave her speech last night that she was emotionally drained. But on what basis and to what extent?

How much of that anguish was attributable to losing and how much may have been attributable to a looming financial crisis that just got considerably worse. I know the two are closely related, but they can be very distinct. There has to be a lot of psyche going on in any presidential candidate’s head just to endure the grueling pace from one day to the next. And when that psyche takes a hit, money has no bearing either way.

So, what’s Hillary going to do? All the pundits I heard last night and early this morning were getting out their black attire and calling the florist. Yeah, Hillary’s campaign is dead. No reasonable argument can be made to continue, that a reasonable person will accept. The operative word here is “reasonable.”

Hillary will not pull out today. She has unfinished business.

The campaign has a huge debt and it will not be retired for years if Clinton puts a screeching halt on her campaign. Of course, no one expects her to bring in $10 million a day at this point, but if Hillary keeps up appearances at some level, there are plenty of suckers out there willing to contribute. And Hillary will be pleased to take their money.

Furthermore, the more Clinton continues to campaign, the more Obama has to spend time and money fighting her. I think the idea of this is revolting, but she’s probably going to ask Obama to pay off at least part of her debt, if not all of it, and until he does, she just keeps campaigning. At some point, it becomes a business decision rather than a matter of principle.

Clinton may be far more concerned about what kind of deals she can extort out of Obama, rather than how much money. Last night, the Elite Washington Punditry was chattering about a V.P. slot for Hillary. Frankly, I don’t see that happening right now. I don’t believe either of them will consider it. But many of Hillary’s staffers, which she is deeply indebted to morally and economically, will soon be out on the street. Clinton can probably force Obama to pick up many of them.

I don’t think Clinton will be announcing any withdrawal until she has made substantial progress on those issues – that’s a best case scenario.

Then there is the Rachel Maddow theory. Clinton has not had a viable, logical argument to keep her campaign going for a long time, so, why would she all of a sudden take a logical, realistic approach about what she will do tomorrow. Valid point, but the illogical just gets harder. I would not discredit the possibility of Clinton firing up her earth-scorching machine at any moment, but by default, the probability reduced significantly last night.

Furthermore, I had a sense last night that someone – the right person – told Bill and Hillary it was time to shut it down. Moreover, that message may have been a direct result of exit polls showing the party falling apart versus “you’re losing.” Their message flipped on a dime last night, but more striking to me was Hillary’s tone and Bill’s body language.

Bill Clinton looked as bad last night as I can ever remember seeing him – far worse than the Rose Garden speech after the House impeached him. I know he’s older and the physical stress of the campaign were indeed factors, but it went beyond those elements. They’ve known the campaign was sinking, there could not have been a surprise.

Bill Clinton, I thought, looked as if he had just been told his child died – metaphorically, that is. No association with Chelsea intended. And Hillary had to obviously draw on her litigator skills to get through her speech.

If Hillary winds the campaign down, I’m sure it’s a mixture of elements. That notwithstanding, this afternoon, I will not be surprised to hear: “Shame on you, Barack Obama. Shame on you!”

Update 12:00 PM:  I intentionally did not look around to see what "newsworthy" events were popping up before I wrote this post. Now, I’m glad that I did not.

Update II 2:01 PM: Some might be inclined to think or be persuaded to believe that one reason Clinton is staying in the race is to fight for seating the Michigan and Florida delegates. She may use that as a bargaining chip while she can, but the moment it no longer suits her purpose, those states will be a distant memory for Clinton.