Convention Bounce for McCain
Sep 5, 2008 at 3:25 PM by David Pleasant
Looks like McCain might have gotten a bounce in the polls from the convention.
Today’s Rasmussen number: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, within the ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, when all the sampling predated Palin’s speech, Obama was ahead 50%-45%.
Today’s Gallup number: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-42%.
The polls don’t seem too factor in,that traditionaly registered republicans show up to vote at a higher ratio than do registered democrats.
Another hidden factor,rarely mentioned in the media.When a poll taker calls on the phone,in the majority of cases if a married woman answers,and the husband is home,she’ll give the phone to her husband to take the poll.And who out there believes,she couldn’t vote contrary to her husbands vote,and not feel compelled to tell him how she voted. Sarah swayed many more women,than the poll takers will ever decipher.
@ Bill Gordon
“When a poll taker calls on the phone,in the majority of cases if a married woman answers,and the husband is home,she’ll give the phone to her husband to take the poll.”
What is your source of information? That’s a big assertion to be accepted as fact without some evidence.
My actual polling experience is so limited it really doesn’t count, but where I’ve been on the polling side, if the pollster did not reach the intended respondent, the survey was not conducted. They pollster might call back or eventually put it in the “not home” trash, but the guidelines did not allow for the scenario you presented.
“…traditionaly (sic) registered republicans show up to vote at a higher ratio than do registered democrats.”
Same question. What is your source of information on that assertion?
- -David Pleasant
Of course McCain got a bounce in the polls. Sarah Palin is an attractive political figure — as McCain seems all-too-well aware — and she provides energy for an otherwise limpid campaign.
But yes, the polls are particularly difficult to read this election because both candidates have been breaking the rules, whilst modern sampling is predicated on the idea that the previous election’s rules will hold.
Further, this election’s polling is made much more difficult by the fact that communications are in flux — increasing numbers of people are moving off the telephone grid and onto the net.
@ Carrington
Agree on all points, especially “breaking the rules” part if by that you mean conventional/tradition. We’re in uncharted territory for a variety of reasons.
I believe the national polls are “off” by approximately 25 to 30 percent, which is a huge factor. I wish I could provide specific references to support that conclusion, but I can’t. Part of my posit is based on “combining” a host of information from various sources — in other words just trying to be informed — and the remainder is based on the unique and unprecedented aspects of this election cycle, which you noted.
- - David Pleasant
Looks like the Republicans have the wrong person at the head of the ticket.