Archive for the 'Elections 2006' Category
Nov 8, 2006 at 12:28 PM by Political Chase
This post was revised on June 17, 2007 to include the full text of Forti’s memo.Â
Wasting no time, the NRCC was the first to release election results talking points.
With some exceptions these all sound good, but the Republicans failed to address the two primary reasons they suffered substantial loses - George Bush and Iraq. Yesterday’s damaging message did not get through.
Also, 60+% of the exit polls said that voters were voting on national issues and not local issues. As you can see, the Republicans still believe the election was about local issues.
Following is a an abbreviated version of their are the talking points Carl Forti released. The full text of the memo is available here.
NRCC Election Results Talking Points
To: Interested Parties
From: Carl Forti, Communications Director
Re: Election Results Talking Points
Date: November 8, 2006
Democrats needed to pick up 15 seats to win a majority in the House, and based on unofficial results, they have achieved that goal. With some votes still being counted, House GOPers have lost at least 28 seats.
The following analysis may be helpful to you as you unravel the results of these midterm elections:
Despite a Challenging Environment, Good Republican Campaigns Won. Even in an environment as challenging as this one, all politics can still be local, and those candidates who ran solid campaigns and defined their opponents early were successful. Examples include Deborah Pryce, Jon Porter, Jim Gerlach, Steve Chabot, Geoff Davis, Thelma Drake, and Heather Wilson.
Incumbents Who Were Unprepared Lost. While some incumbents lost tough, perennially competitive seats - i.e., CT-05, FL-22, and KY-03 - others who had not had a tough race in years and did not get their campaign up and running early simply waited too long to disqualify their opponent. As a result, they were swallowed up by the sour national environment.
The Scandal Factor Was Costly. We lost several seats by the self-inflicted route: AZ-05, CA-11, FL-16, NY-20, NC-11, OH-18, PA-07, PA-10, and TX-22. Note that with the exception of PA-07, all of these are fairly reliable Republican districts.
Retirements Were Also Damaging. Several members in swing districts either retired or decided to run for higher office: AZ-08, CO-07, IA-01, NY-24, and WI-08.
Sixth-Year Elections Are The Toughest For The President’s Party. In the six of its kind that have occurred after the Civil War and prior to this one, the President’s party suffered average losses of 41 House seats in his sixth year in office.
The Erosion in the Environment Suppressed Discussion of Local Issues. The mood of the electorate grew increasingly sour over the course of the campaign, which made it difficult for GOP candidates - especially those who were not as battle-tested - to gain traction on local issues.
Despite the fact that these races were about local issues and the NRCC devoted significant resources to making sure that was the case, several campaigns simply could not overcome the challenges of running in an environment that had significantly eroded.
The NRCC Engaged In Its Most Extensive Voter Contact Program to Date. The committee spent over $80 million on House races and did independent expenditures in 59 districts.
This Was a Team Effort.
The White House was of great help in supporting and raising money for our candidates. The President, First Lady, and Vice President traveled to over 75 districts this cycle.
Chairman Ken Mehlman and his team at the RNC were also a great asset in our efforts.
201 Members of the House Republican Conference — in addition to three incoming freshmen — contributed to the NRCC’s signature Battleground Program, which raised over $25 million, resources that went directly into House races.
Nov 8, 2006 at 9:31 AM by Political Chase
Just a quick update on the Virginia Senate race (Webb vs. Allen). Unless George Allen concedes, which seems to be out of the question, it will be weeks before a recount will be considered.
According to the Times.
According to a statement issued this month by the state’s Board of Elections, no request for a recount may be filed until the vote is certified, which is scheduled to happen this year on Nov. 27th.
After certification, a losing candidate has 10 days to file a recount request in the state courts. The petition will be considered by a panel made up of the Chief Judge of the Circuit Court in Richmond and two judges appointed by the Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court. Those judges then set out guidelines for conducting the recount.
Nov 8, 2006 at 8:44 AM by Political Chase
Word has it that President Bush spoke with Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi inviting her and Sen. Dick Durbin to lunch at the White House Thursday. Allegedly, Bush made statements that they needed to talk about how they could start working together.
If the statements are accurate and Bush’s intentions are truly to begin working together, that’s great. However, it begs the question, why did it take six years and overthrowing Congress to get the President to recognize a Democrat even existed in Congress? If the Republicans were still in control of the House, would Bush have made the same call this morning, or would he stay the course with his omnipotent, unilateral management style?
Let’s hope the President, who has never operated in a bipartisan manner, received a rude awakening last night – and not from the fear of a plethora of subpoenas. If the President does not do an about-face and work productively with Congress, this country will only sink further and the Democrats will turn the Executive branch inside out with investigations.
Nov 8, 2006 at 6:58 AM by Political Chase
House of Representatives: Democrats 235, Republicans 200, with a +/– 6 margin of error. In the unlikely event the Republicans gained seats by taking all of the margin of error, the Democrats still retain a substantial lead.
Senate: Democrats 49, Republicans 49, Undecided 2. Virginia and Montana are officially undecided. In Montana, Jon Tester (D) leads Sen. Conrad Burns (R) by a mere 2,052 votes. Approximately 1:00 AM, Jim Webb declared victory in Virginia with approximately a 12,000 vote margin, which has since reduced to a 7,847 vote lead. Around midnight, George Allen, ended the evening with strong statements that the election was definitely undecided. The Virginia vote, by law, is close enough for an automatic recount.
The two Independents, Joe Lieberman (CT) and Bernie Sanders (VT) will caucus with the Democrats.
Source: MSNBC as of 6:00 a.m.
Based on exit polls, the election, without doubt, was a referendum on George Bush. Pundit after pundit stated throughout the night that the nation has sent an overwhelming message to the President. The question is, did he and his minions hear it? Bush has scheduled a speech for 1:00 p.m. today to address the nation about the results. Based on history, and statements by Republican leaders, especially the current RNC Chairman and his predecessor, I am not overly optimistic we will see a humbled President.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (R-CA), the expected Speaker of the House, will make a speech today at Noon. Notice the President’s choice of time – coincidental?
We shall see how much remains of the “substantial political capital” George Bush received (a delusion) in 2004.
By now, I imagine there are more lawyers in the Commonwealth of Virginia and Montana than there are residents. Shortly after the polls closed in Virginia, the Republicans had already filed papers challenging the race, without even knowing what the count would be.
The next 24 to 48 hours will be a cat fight.
Nov 7, 2006 at 10:58 PM by Political Chase
BREAKING: DEMOCRATS HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE
As of 10:54 Democrats have won (projected) an additionional 19 seats, with more to come.
Nov 7, 2006 at 9:53 PM by Political Chase
FL-GOV: Charlie Crist (R), who ran like hell from George Bush the other day, is the projected winner for Governor in Florida.
Source: MSNBC
Nov 7, 2006 at 9:45 PM by Political Chase
IF the projections thus far are good, the Democrats are three seats away from taking the Senate. The pattern, theoretically, is looking pretty good.
That notwithstanding, a close watch on Virginia is necessary – the vote is so close at this point an automatic recount may be necessary. However, most of the northern Virginia votes are not in yet, which is projected to be heavily Jim Webb.
All that said, I still have very vivid memories of Florida projections in 2000. I would not bring out the champagne yet.
Nov 7, 2006 at 9:35 PM by Political Chase
RI-Senate: This is a big one. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) is projected to beat Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R).
Source: NBC News
Nov 7, 2006 at 8:52 PM by Political Chase
OH-Senate: Sherrod Brown (Democrat) is projected to defeat Sen. Mike DeWine (Republican). This is a big one.
PA-Senate: Bob Casey (Democrat) is projected to defeat the Sen. Rick Santorum (Republican). Bye-bye Rick!
Source: NBC News
Nov 7, 2006 at 8:07 PM by Political Chase
FL – Senate. OK, hold on to your seat; you’ll never believe this. Sen. Bill Nelson will beat Rep. Katherine Harris.
Source: NBC News
Nov 7, 2006 at 7:48 PM by Political Chase
OH – GOV: NBC predicts Ted Strickland (Democrat) will win.
Nov 7, 2006 at 7:44 PM by Political Chase
Chuck Todd of Hotline predicts if the Democrats take 25 – 30 seats in the House, they will also take the Senate.
Source: MSNBC, Chris Matthews interviews Chuck Todd
Nov 7, 2006 at 7:16 PM by Political Chase
The White House anticipates the Democrats will easily take control of the House, but do not believe the Dems will take the Senate.
Source: MSNBC/NBC News, David Gregory
Nov 7, 2006 at 7:10 PM by Political Chase
Two early predictions in the Senate by NBC News.
Indiana – Sen. Richard Lugar (R)
Vermont – Bernie Sanders (I)
Nov 7, 2006 at 5:22 PM by Political Chase
A.B. Stoddard’s, Associate Editor of The Hill, predictions for the Senate races:
Tennessee (TN) – Sen. Bob Corker (Republican) will defeat Rep. Harold Ford (Democrat).
Virginia (VA) – Jim Webb (Democrat) will defeat Sen. George Allen (Republican).
Maryland (MD) – Ben Cardin (Democrat) will defeat Michael Steele (Republican).
Missouri (MO) – Claire McCaskill (Democrat) will defeat Sen. Jim Talent (Republican).
New Jersey (NJ) = Sen. Bob Menendez (Democrat) will defeat Thomas Kein, Jr. (Republican).
Rhode Island (RI) – Sen. Lincoln Chaffee (Republican) will defeat Sheldon Whitehouse (Democrat).
If Stoddard is correct, that gives Democrat four seats, two short of carrying the majority.
Source: MSNBC – Tucker Carlson interviews A.B. Stoddard
[Editorial Note: This and several other posts do not have reference links to the source. Much of the information I am passing along is from the broadcast media; therefore, transcripts are not immediately available and may not be available in the future. However, I will cite the source of information.]
