The Political Chase

Obama and Huck lead Iowa by 9 points each

Presidential candidate Barack Obama

With less than three weeks remaining before the caucuses Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee hold nine-point leads in Iowa according to the latest Research 2000 poll (pdf).

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama had 33 percent. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are tied for second with 24 percent each. 

Five percent said they were undecided. I wonder if those five percent realize they may decide who will be the next president. If they all pick Edwards or Clinton, then that would put whichever candidate in a statistical tie with Obama, but that’s a ridiculous notion because all undecided caucuses goers are not going to select one person. Still, I suspect if there was any way the top three Dems could find out who is in the undecided category, they could get anything they wanted - just name it.

For example, Bill and Hillary Clinton recently gave $100,000 to build a new library in Marlboro County, SC, which will probably fund most, if not all of the structure costs considering the demographics of the county. Population - 28,081. Only 33-35 percent of the population are literate. Incredibly sad, but also ironic. (I can’t link to a reference for all info quoted but county government sources have previously confirmed the information).

Who seriously doubts that providing $100,000 for a new library in an economic environment such as Marlboro County will get votes? I’m not criticizing the Clinton’s, instead I applaud them. But it will get votes. I believe Marlboro County is only second to Anson County, NC for being the poorest county in the nation.

Green indicates the leader in a given poll.

IOWA DEMOCRATIC

Pollster	Date	Clinton	Edwards	Obama	Richardson
Research 2000	12/13	24	24	33	9
Ramussen	12/10/07	29	22	26	7
Strategic Vision (R)	12/10/07	25	24	33	4
Newsweek	12/6/07	29	18	35	9
McClatchy-MSNBC	12/6/07	27	21	25	9
GSG (D-Edwards)	12/5/07	27	24	22	9
Strategic Vision (R)	12/2/07	25	25	32	3
Zogby	12/1/07	27	21	24	8

 

Other Democratic presidential candidates: Sen. Joe Biden, D-DE., with 3 percent and Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-CT., and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-OH, with 1 percent each.

Moving to the other side of the aisle, Mike Huckabee had 31 percent and Mitt Romney had 22 percent.

IOWA REPUBLICAN

Pollster	Date	Giuliani	Huckabee	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Research 2000	12/13	9	31	7	22	9
Diageo/Hotline	12/13	12	36	5	23	8
Ramussen	12/10	8	39	6	23	8
Strategic	12/10	10	30	5	25	13
Newsweek	12/6	9	39	6	17	10
McClatchy	12/6	5	32	7	20	11
Strategic	12/2	13	27	6	24	11
Zogby	12/1	12	25	5	26	14
ARG	11/29	9	27	9	28	14

 

Ron Paul R-TX had 7 percent in the latest poll.

No much doubt in on the Terrorepublican side. It’s all Huckabee.

Huckabee’s Surge

I was out of town most of the day yesterday and did not get a chance to post the Republican Party side of the Iowa poll conducted by the Des Moines Register.

Gov. Mike Huckabee’s (AR) ranking increased 17 points, allowing him to pass former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to take the lead among likely GOP caucus participants.

Candidate	November	October	Change
Mike Huckabee	29	12	+17
Mitt Romney	24	29	-5
Rudy Giuliani	13	11	+2
Fred Thompson	9	18	-9
John McCain	7	7	-
Ron Paul	7	4	+3
Not Sure/Uncommitted	4	9	-5

 

Huckabee’s surge is significant, especially considering the amount of time and money Mitt Romney has spent in Iowa. Romney has campaigned extensively in Iowa — TV ads and personal appearances, whereas Huckabee’s campaigning has been limited, largely due to availability of funding. I don’t have the exact figures, but if I recall correctly, Romney’s expenditures in Iowa exceeded Huckabee about 10 to 1, or approximately $1.5 million for Romney and approximately $150,000 for Huckabee.

Nationally, according to the latest FEC filings (9/30), Romney’s campaign had received $62.8 million, versus $2.3 million for Huckabee.

Notable also is Fred Thompson’s performance in the poll. Thompson, the touted savior of the Republican Party before actually entering the race, dropped nine points and is statistically tied with John McCain and Ron Paul.

Furthermore, the GOP race in Iowa is fluid, to say the least. “Roughly six in 10 likely Republican caucus participants say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate,” the Des Moines Register reports.