The Political Chase

Indiana and North Carolina Results

Please note: this post will be bumped up while the returns come in. Newer posts may follow it.

Clinton

Obama

 % Reporting

Indiana

52%

48%

83%

535,395

493,774

Difference 
+41,621
 

North Carolina 

42%

56%

70%

 
492,515
663,726
 

Difference 
 
+171,211 

NBC has changed Indiana from “too early to call” to “too close to call.”

Reviewing NC Prediction

Thirty-two percent of the voters in North Carolina were African-Americans and 91 percent of those voters chose Barack Obama. I predicted 40 percent of African-American voters would turnout and that 80 percent of those voters would go for Obama. Looks like I was definitely off on each percentage, but maybe the net will yield [...]

Obama Wins in NC

NBC News calls it for North Carolina the moment the polls closed.

Early Exit Polling Results - Negativity

Early exit polls from CBS:
Voting for the Opponent - The slugfest in the campaign is definitely taking a toll. Only 36 percent of Clinton voters in Indiana and 34 percent in North Carolina said they would be vote for Obama if Clinton does not win the nomination. Forty-one percent of Obama voters in Indiana [...]

What the chattering class will say

I think most are of the opinion that Clinton will win Indiana in the mid-to-low single digits; probably somewhere around five points. Obama will probably win North Carolina maybe with a high single-digit margin. Some are predicting double digits for Obama in N.C., but I’m not that confident. If that turns out to be reasonably [...]

Indiana prediction not as easy

I have not been able to find any electoral demographics for Indiana that I consider reliable or usable. The Indiana Election Division does not appear to publish any official breakdown of registered voters; if they do, I have not been able to find it. All the polls have demographic data, but it’s provided in terms [...]

Prediction for North Carolina Primary

(updated below)
I may be wrong, but unless all polls are wrong (polls leading up to N.C. primary and exit polls from prior elections), I don’t see how Barack Obama can lose N.C. Based on my algorithm, Obama would have to suffer a catastrophic reversal of current and historical trends to lose.
Based on a [...]

Fines Could Exceed $1 Billion for NC Robocalls

Women’s Voices, Women Votes (WVWV), a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit organization, may be subject to more than $929 million in fines for generating tens of thousands of robocalls to North Carolina voters last week. According to the state’s Attorney General’s office, WVWV may have violated the state’s telephone solicitation laws.
In addition to the $929 [...]

Hillary-Backing Executive at WVWV Issues Statement on NC Robocalls

Page Gardner, President of Women’s Votes, Women’s Voices and a Hillary Clinton supporter, issued a statement regarding their robocalls in NC and the 16-truckloads of mailers post offices in North Carolina were preparing to deliver.
"In an attempt to prevent further confusion surrounding our voter registration efforts prior to the North Carolina primary, Women’s Voices. Women [...]

NC Attorney General: Women’s Voices broke the law

North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper says WVWV broke the law making all those “voter registration” robocalls and demanded the group cease and desist.
Attorney General Roy Cooper said Wednesday that the group, Women’s Voices, Women Vote, broke the state law that governs automated phone calls, or “robocalls.” No charges were filed, and Cooper’s office was [...]

NC robocall group WVWV’s ties to Clintons

Progressive South at Kos has found these associations between the WVWV and the Clintons. WVWV is the group responsible for the robocalls in NC  I discussed in my last post.
Some have also questioned the ties between Women’s Voices operatives and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton. Gardner, for example, contributed $2,500 to Clinton’s HILLPAC on [...]

Is Clinton behind voter suppression in NC, OH, and VA?

(Update I and Update II below)
Robocalls organized by the D.C.-based non-profit organization, Women’s Voices Women’s Votes, have targeted African-American voters in North Carolina, and possibly 23 other states, in what has all the appearances of illegal vote suppression.
The NC State Board of Elections is investigating calls that African-American voters have received where the caller [...]

Against highway tax cuts before she was for it

I repeatedly find instances of Hillary Clinton pandering some voter-catching two-bit policy, which is contradictory to policies Clinton has proposed in the past or runs afoul with her legislative record.
For example, Clinton has joined the McCain Pandering Express in a proposal to eliminate the federal highway tax during the summer months, and as [...]

More ‘Bitter’ Obfuscation

Bill Clinton gets caught in another lie. (Hat tip to John Aravosis)

Political Radar: Bill Clinton Keeps ‘Bitter’ Alive

Over seven stops in North Carolina, Clinton said “Everywhere I go there are all these people with signs, saying I’m not bitter - I’m not bitter.”
Clinton said during a stop in Jim [...]

MN Senator and NC Dems to endorse Obama

(updated below)
The Wall Street Journal (sub. req.) reports Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is expected to endorse Barack Obama today. But more significantly, the Journal reports the entire NC House delegation is "poised to endorse Sen. Obama as a group" before the May 6 NC primary. How often is a state’s entire House delegation going to [...]