The Political Chase

What the chattering class will say

I think most are of the opinion that Clinton will win Indiana in the mid-to-low single digits; probably somewhere around five points. Obama will probably win North Carolina maybe with a high single-digit margin. Some are predicting double digits for Obama in N.C., but I’m not that confident. If that turns out to be reasonably [...]

Indiana prediction not as easy

I have not been able to find any electoral demographics for Indiana that I consider reliable or usable. The Indiana Election Division does not appear to publish any official breakdown of registered voters; if they do, I have not been able to find it. All the polls have demographic data, but it’s provided in terms [...]

The Pennsylvania Math

This is where the Democratic race stands after the primary in Pennsylvania yesterday. Since Chuck Todd is probably the best in the business, these are his numbers.

 
Obama
Clinton
Spread

Pledged Delegates (Pre-PA)
1417
1251
Obama +166

PA Delegates *
71
80
Clinton +9

Total Pledged Delegates
1488
1331
Obama +157

Supedelegates
238
262
Clinton +25

Total Delegates
1726
1593
Obama +133

Popular Votes (Pre-PA)
13.4 million
12.7 million
26.1 million [...]

PA Dem Primary Live Blogging II

9:23 PM
Ohh god. I don’t think I can sit here and listen to all the lies coming out of the Clinton campaign.
Chris Matthews is squeezing McAuliffe on delegates vs. popular vote, but of course that doesn’t matter to Team Clinton. They won the Democratic nomination tonight to hear them tell it.
Clinton argument: Popular vote is [...]

Live-Blogging the PA Returns

8:44 PM Going to a new post
8:39 PM
Clinton 64%
Obama 34%
0% reporting
8:37 PM
Fineman: Obama spent Clinton into oblivion…only a matter of time.
Still to close to call.
8:35 PM
Howard Fineman says the Obama strategy was to force Clinton to spend lots of money in Pennsylvania and it may have worked.”They’re out of bundlers, exhausted, and are reduced to [...]